The tradition of linking celestial phenomena with secular political behavior has been a longstanding practice in human civilization that has often been viewed as a superstitious obstacle to modern development. This article challenges this perspective by demonstrating how this tradition enhances state capacity and reduces social conflicts. Using the Bayesian persuasion approach, we construct a model of political cosmology and test it in the context of the doctrine of Heaven-Mankind Interaction in Imperial China. The evidence suggests that this tradition led to more tax cuts by the emperors and fewer rebellions from farmers. Our findings shed light on the socio-economic significance of the Confucian doctrine and echo the ancient wisdom of Plato’s argument for the “noble lie”.
Chen Shuo